There’s a lot we don’t know about the burgeoning police investigation into Angela Rayner. But one thing we do know: it’s not going away any time soon.
When Conservative MP James Daley first reported the Deputy Labour leader to Greater Manchester Police for potential electoral fraud, the police decided that it didn’t warrant an explanation.
A few weeks later, in light of new evidence, they suddenly changed their minds. And now, it has emerged that the investigation is going to be extremely comprehensive and very resource intensive.
The Chief Commissioner Stephen Watson isn’t saying much just yet, but he has revealed that at least a dozen officers are going to be on the case, and calls it a matter of “public interest”.
The police investigation into Rayner could affect the local elections
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It’s also been revealed that these officers will be looking into more than one allegation – in fact, Watson has said that there are “a number of allegations knocking about”.
So, what does it all mean for the local elections?
There are three possible outcomes, all with very different knock-on effects. First, the investigation is wrapped up in the next two weeks, and Labour can walk into the locals with their heads held high.
It’s possible, of course, but given the rigour that GMP has shown in pursuing this so far, my money would be on a longer timeline.
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So, could Labour be heading into the locals with their Deputy Leader under the shadow of a police investigation? If so, that could get very awkward indeed.
There is a clip from 2022 showing Rayner in the Commons stoutly telling MPs that then Prime Minister Boris Johnson should step down from his role because of the police investigation into his conduct.
Rayner loyalists will argue that her case is different: for one thing the alleged offences took place before she was even an MP, let alone in high office. But you can imagine the Tory taunts, and it seems likely that some of the mud would stick.
Thirdly, and most damagingly for Labour, police could find Rayner guilty of committing a criminal offence. In those circumstances the Deputy Labour Leader has said she would step aside.
But it seems likely that Starmer too would be tarnished
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But it seems likely that Starmer too would be tarnished. So far he has attempted to insulate himself from criticism by claiming that he hasn’t read Rayner’s personal tax advice, and accusing the Prime Minister of smearing a “working class woman”.
If it emerges that Rayner did indeed commit a criminal offence, that studious avoidance may start to look like negligence.
And it could leave the Labour leader in for accusations that he’s too weak to keep a grip on his own shadow cabinet.
All in all, the local elections may just not be the Tory bloodbath we’ve all been expecting.
