Well the grown-ups are back in the room, apparently.
After chucking out undefeated election winner Boris Johnson and then wannabe taxcutter Liz Truss, Conservative MPs opted for Rishi Sunak. From what we’ve seen so far, that has been a terrible mistake.
It is still somewhat surreal to have gone from the Johnson Brexit manifesto to Sunak flanked by Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor plus now Lord Cameron as Foreign Secretary.
The mythical ‘centre-ground’ has seen Conservative support implode to the point that new research actually points to Rishi Sunak doing more damage to the Tory Party’s prospects than Truss when she was PM.
It is notable that unlike Johnson and Truss, large sections of the media have not questioned Sunak’s leadership prospects. Clearly the establishment feel more comfortable. What even is the Sunak agenda? Pretty much the status quo as far as I can see.
Now a new report, ‘Implosion in Blue’ by Callum Hunter of JL Partners polling, reveals the damage that has now been done.
The conclusions from this report are stark: “The Conservatives falling behind even further with 2019 Tories: to its lowest level yet, even lower than under Liz Truss.
“A stabilisation in Conservative-to-Labour switchers: down from its high-point in November 2022 but still substantial.
“The rise of Reform: taking significant numbers from the Conservative Party in a way not seen yet in this parliament.”
The report describes the increase in Tory to Reform switchers: “From early October this group began to grow again, to record highs, starting around the same time as Sunak’s speech at Conservative party conference. Since then, it has continued to rise until it reached 15% at the end of November – representing around 1.5 million previous Conservative voters.”
And when you compare Sunak’s popularity with the Truss premiership, James Johnson of JL Partners spells out the current situation: “Just 59 per cent of 2019 Tories voting Conservative, compared to 63 per cent under Truss and 74 per cent last summer.”
In other words, the Conservatives are facing a more severe disaster now than they were under Liz Truss.
So the question now is whether Conservative MPs opt for one more leadership challenge before the next General Election.
Some will view that as farcical, that surely to oust yet another Conservative Leader would be absurd.
But looking at the data, at the figures, at the political reality, perhaps the best hope for Tory MPs is now to change Leader, hope for a fresh bounce and call a snap election led by a new Prime Minister.
