Sir Keir Starmer is on course to lose his own seat in North London as he struggles to hold onto power in Downing Street, a bombshell polling aggregator has claimed.
The Prime Minister’s seat of Holborn & St Pancras has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983, but is now being eyed by Zack Polanski’s Green Party.
The damning prediction piles further misery on the embattled Sir Keir, who faced calls to resign by Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar on Monday.
Cabinet Ministers quickly united behind the Prime Minister, who then faced crunch talks with Labour MPs later that evening.
While the narrow escape may have provided some reprieve, Electoral Calculus’s predictions for his seat would likely be painful reading for the Prime Minister.
As it stands, Labour has just a 38 per cent chance of holding Holborn & St Pancras at the next election.
Meanwhile, the Green Party was handed a 56 per cent chance of swiping the seat.
Pollsters predicted that every ward would go to Zack Polanski’s party, a feat that was achieved by Labour in the 2024 General Election.
Keir Starmer has been predicted to lose his own north London constutuency
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GETTY
Making up the difference was Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which held an outside five per cent chance of securing victory.
Sir Keir has represented Holborn & St Pancras since 2015, replacing former Labour Health Secretary Frank Dobson, who had held the seat since its creation.
The seat was previously known as Holborn & St Pancras South and had been formed in the 1950s.
Voters in the leafy London seat have only backed a Conservative candidate once since 1950, with Geoffrey Johnson-Smith claiming victory in 1959.
Sir Keir was given only a 38 per cent chance of keeping control of Holborn and St Pancras
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ELECTORAL CALCULUS
While no serving Prime Minister has been unseated while in No10 before, several constituencies once represented by leaders are no longer held by their parties following the 2024 general election.
Uxbridge & South Ruislip, formerly Boris Johnson’s seat, and South West Norfolk, represented by Liz Truss, are now in Labour hands.
Meanwhile, Finchley & Golders Green, long associated with Margaret Thatcher, was also won by Labour.
The Liberal Democrats also captured Witney, David Cameron’s former constituency, and Maidenhead, previously held by Theresa May.
Richmond (Yorks), the seat of Rishi Sunak, remains Conservative with the former Prime Minister and Chancellor still occupying the seat.
The Green Party under Zack Polanski is on track to swoop the seat at the next election
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PA
Older Labour-held seats such as Sedgefield, represented by Tony Blair, and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, held by Gordon Brown, also remain with Labour, despite short stints in the hands of the Tory Party and SNP respectively.
The collapse of support for Labour could be linked to Sir Keir registering a brutal -50 per cent favourability among the British public.
This worked out at a massive 70 per cent of respondents saying they do not like the Prime Minister, compared to the paltry 20 per cent that still back him, according to new Ipso polling.
Sir Keir appeared particularly polarising to the British public, with only 10 per cent admitting they did not know what to make of him.
The Prime Minister has occupied the Holborn and St Pancras seat since 2015
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GETTY
Following a string of scandals and major U-turns, the Prime Minister has seen his support collapse from 34 per cent in June 2024, before taking power, to the doldrums of February 2026.
“Now, not even two years into the government, the apathy about brand Labour and brand Starmer is turning to anger,” polling guru George Buchan told GB News.
The damming verdict came as the Prime Minister narrowly held onto his job following the rare intervention from Mr Sarwar. On Tuesday, he issued a fiery defence of his premiership.
Speaking to the Parliamentary Labour Party following the Downing Street chaos, he declared: “I have won every fight I’ve ever been in.”
Sir Keir has clung on to power following a chaotic few days in Downing Street
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GETTY
“I fought to change the Crown Prosecution Service so it better served victims of violence against women and girls. I fought to change the Labour Party to allow us to win an election again,” he said.
“People told me I couldn’t do it… We won with a landslide majority. Every fight I’ve been in, I have won.”
On Wednesday, Sir Keir doubled down on his defiance – insisting he “will never walk away” while speaking in Hertfordshire
“There are some people in recent days who say the Labour government should have a different fight, a fight with itself, instead of a fight for the millions of people who need us to fight for them.
“I say to them, I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I’m charged with fighting for, and I will never walk away from the country that I love.”
