A trio of US Air Force ‘Weatherbird’ planes has taken off from Mississippi into the Caribbean Sea to collect data on a system poised to develop into a tropical storm.
Known as hurricane hunters, the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flew through the Gulf of America, between Mexico and Cuba, before reaching what is currently labeled Invest 98L.
The WC-130J Hercules aircraft gathers critical storm data, including pressure, wind, temperature, and moisture levels from inside the system.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) raised the odds of cyclone formation over the next 48 hours to 100 percent, noting that the tropical wave has become increasingly organized. The next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season list is Melissa.
‘Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical storm is expected to form later today while the system moves slowly over the central Caribbean Sea,’ the agency said in a Tuesday report.
Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible over Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao in the next couple of days.
‘Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system, as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week,’ the NHC added.
While most forecast models keep the continental US out of immediate danger, some models suggest a potential direct path toward Florida or a dangerously close approach.
A trio of US Air Force ‘Weatherbird’ planes has taken off from Mississippi into the Caribbean Sea to collect data on a system poised to develop into a tropical storm
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the odds of cyclone formation over the next 48 hours to 100 percent, noting it has become more organized
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement: ‘While we think that the chances of a direct U.S. hit from this storm are low right now, it’s still on the table should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean.’
In October, tropical storms entering the western Caribbean typically veer away from Texas and Louisiana.
However, the eastern US, especially Florida, remains at risk for powerful storms.
Meteorologists are predicting that when Melissa forms, the system will move ‘slowly to the north or northwest, over or just to the west of the mountainous island of Hispaniola, and it may even stall over the region.’
AccuWeather also said it is possible the system could become the next hurricane of the season in the warm waters of the central Caribbean.
The system currently has a maximum wind speed of 45mph and is moving west at 13mph.
Although models show uncertainty about the system’s path, storm chaser Mitch West warned on X: ‘You would be a fool to say this has zero percent chance of impacting the US.
‘The chances are low, but it’s certainly possible, and we have surely seen it happen in the past. With a large trough signal showing up at the end of the month, you can have weird stuff happen depending on its position.
While most forecast models keep the continental US out of immediate danger, some models suggest a potential direct path toward Florida or a dangerously close approach
‘A trough doesn’t always push things out to sea; it can sometimes pull on things.”
Forecasting models suggest three main scenarios: the storm could rapidly strengthen and hit Hispaniola, develop slowly to strike Nicaragua or Honduras, or, in an extreme scenario, move close to South Florida, including the Keys.
Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at Florida’s WINK News, echoed West’s comments, saying: ‘Florida is not in the clear yet.
‘Remember, models are analyzing something that hasn’t even formed! A possible blocker could be a cold front sweeping by around Halloween, but the timing will be a big factor.’
Rob Lightbown, a meteorologist for Crown Weather, agreed with West that there is a low risk of a US impact, but definitely not a zero chance.
‘I do have concerns that energy/moisture from 98L/Melissa could get pulled into a potential storm system over the Eastern US near Halloween,’ he shared on X.
Andy Hazelton, associate Scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, shared the three scenarios on X over the weekend: ‘I’m personally leaning more towards Scenarios 2 or 3, with slower development and a track either towards Central America or into the NW Caribbean, but certainly Scenario 1 is on the table if it gets organized and feels the weakness to the north.
The three ‘hurricane hunters’ were spotted on flight radar, showing the planes head toward the system in the Caribbean Sea
‘Folks all through the Antilles from Puerto Rico to Cuba should be prepared for potential impacts from this system if it develops.’
Scenario one shows the storm making a quick northeastern turn across Hispaniola, with a path mostly affecting the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
The second suggests the system stays weak and develops deeper in the Caribbean, moving closer to Nicaragua or Honduras.
The third scenario shows the storm taking longer to form, but developing into a powerful hurricane in the northwest Caribbean.
This track could threaten Cuba, the Bahamas, and potentially extreme South Florida and the Keys.
Florida Storm Chasers posted on X: ‘The latest 00z EURO Ensembles are still showing Scenario 3 happening as #98L is developing quickly, and would bring it dangerously close to Florida!’
The ’00z EURO Ensembles’ is a set of weather forecasts from the European model run at midnight UTC, showing multiple possible outcomes to capture uncertainty in the forecast.
