Scientists have warned that a newly discovered ‘city-destroying’ asteroid has a chance of smashing into Earth in the next decade.
The nearly 200-foot-wide space rock, labeled 2024 YR4, has a 1.2 percent probability of colliding with our planet on December 22, 2032.
It has the potential to cause significant damage, especially if it lands in a densely populated area like a major city.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered last year, is about the same size as the Tunguska asteroid that caused the most explosive impact in recorded history when it shot through Earth’s atmosphere in 1908, killing three people.
It exploded in the air over Siberia in what’s known as an ‘air burst,’ and a blast equivalent to detonating 50 million tons of TNT flattened an estimated 80 million trees over 830 square miles of forest.
On December 22, 2032, the asteroid will come within approximately 66,000 miles of our planet.
But orbital uncertainties could increase the chances from a one to 1.2 percent chance of it directly hitting Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 immediately shot to the top of NASA’s automated Sentry risk list, which ranks known Near Earth Objects (NEOs) on how likely they are to collide with our planet.
A nearly 200-foot-wide asteroid has a chance of smashing into the Earth in December 2032, scientists warn (STOCK)
However, astronomers have also said that the asteroid could remain intact during the descent and slam into the ground, creating a massive crater and decimating human communities in the impact area.
But the odds that this asteroid will hit our planet are low. And even in the unlikely event that it does, scientists are not certain how much damage it would cause.
That’s because the force of its impact will depend on currently unknown aspects of its composition and a more refined estimation of its size, experts say.
‘People should absolutely not worry about this yet,’ Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin told Space.com.
‘Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us,’ he said.
He added that the current ‘risk corridor,’ or the geographical area where the asteroid is most likely to hit, runs from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa.
But this risk corridor is subject to change with new observations and better orbit calculations, Rankin said.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted by a NASA-funded project called the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, or ATLAS, which uses four ground-based telescopes to scan the whole sky several times a night looking for moving objects.
The current ‘risk corridor,’ or the geographical area where the 2024 YR4 is most likely to hit, runs from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa
Analysis of 2024 YR4’s orbit indicates that the asteroid will come within 66,000 miles of Earth on December 22, 2032. But when orbital uncertainties are factored in, it turns out there is a 1.2 percent chance of it directly hitting out planet
On December 27, 2024, an ATLAS telescope located in Rio Hurtado, Chile detected the space rock roughly 27 million miles away.
Shortly after it was discovered, automated asteroid warning systems determined that the object will make a close approach to Earth in about eight years.
This space rock is rated a three on the Torino risk scale, a tool for categorizing potential Earth impact events.
A score of three means 2024 YR4 warrants attention from astronomers because it is likely to have a close encounter with Earth and it has a chance of impact over one percent.
But there is still a lot experts do not know about 2024 YR4, and this makes it difficult to fully understand the danger a direct impact would pose to Earth.
‘Size and composition are big players in possible damage, along with impact location,’ Rankin said.
‘It’s hard to constrain size and composition with the current orbital situation, as it’s outbound,’ or moving away from us, he added.
Typically, the best way to measure an asteroid’s size is with radar observations, according to Rankin.
This technique reflects radio waves or microwaves off an asteroid’s surface and then analyzes the reflections to calculate its size.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which caused the largest impact event in recorded history when it shot through Earth’s atmosphere in 1908
The Tunguska asteroid exploded in the air over Siberia in what’s known as an ‘air burst,’ and a blast equivalent to detonating 50 million tons of TNT that flattened an estimated 80 million trees over 830 square miles of forest. Experts say Asteroid 2024 YR4 could cause a similar event
But astronomers are currently unable to use this technique on 2024 YR4 because it is too far away, though they may have a chance to perform radar observations in 2028 when the asteroid passes within roughly 5 million miles of Earth, Rankin said.
Until then, astronomers must rely on the asteroid’s absolute magnitude, or brightness, to indirectly estimate its size.
This calculation gives them a rough diameter of 196 feet, but this estimate assumes that the asteroid’s surface has a certain level of reflectivity that may not be accurate.
‘If the asteroid has a darker surface, that number is too small; if it has a more reflective surface, that number is too high,’ Rankin said.
Asteroid reflectivity depends on its composition, which also plays an important role in how space rocks behave once they penetrate Earth’s atmosphere.
‘If [asteroid 2024 YR4] is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground,’ Rankin said.
‘If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater. This is why understanding not just the orbit but also the composition and size are so critical.’
Now that 2024 YR4 has been identified as a potential — but unlikely — threat, the race to learn as much about it as possible before 2032 is on.
