Concerns are growing that the authority of the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog could be weakened after the Government failed to begin the search for a new Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) chair despite earlier pledges.
The Treasury had told Parliament that recruitment would begin “within weeks” following Richard Hughes’s departure in December, but the process has not yet started.
The delay has raised concern among parliamentarians and economists about a potential leadership gap at the body responsible for scrutinising the Chancellor’s fiscal forecasts.
The OBR could remain without a chair for several months and potentially throughout the remainder of 2026, if the recruitment process is not accelerated.
Mr Hughes stepped down as OBR chair in December following the accidental release of Budget information.
Ministers had previously assured Parliament that the search for his successor would begin quickly.
However, Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee that “external recruitment has not been launched yet”, adding that it would instead “take place in the months ahead”.
The delay means the OBR is expected to be without a chair when it publishes its next assessment of the UK’s public finances on March 4.
The report will examine whether the Chancellor’s fiscal plans remain on track, at a time when economic pressures continue to affect the Government’s position.
The OBR could remain without a chair for several months
|
GETTY
Slower tax revenue growth, rising unemployment and falling inflation are all expected to place pressure on the Chancellor’s fiscal targets.
The Chancellor is reported to have left a margin of £21.7billion against her fiscal rules, but any deterioration in economic conditions could reduce that buffer.
A member of the Treasury Select Committee, which reviews major economic appointments and is currently examining the OBR’s remit, expressed concern about the delay.
The MP told the Mail on Sunday: “If it drags on much longer it would make us concerned there would not be someone in place by the next major fiscal event in the autumn which would be key.
Mr Hughes stepped down as OBR chair in December following the accidental release of Budget information
|
GETTY
“They should get going, because these appointments do take time.”
Economist Julian Jessop said the most significant reform would be to remove the watchdog entirely and return forecasting responsibility to the Treasury.
Mr Jessop said: “As it stands, the OBR is in danger of becoming the economic equivalent of football’s VAR — overly fussy and constantly second‑guessing the decisions of those who are supposed to be in charge.”
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We will update in due course when the recruitment process for a new chair has commenced.
Liz Truss’s unfunded tax cuts were announced without an accompanying OBR forecast
|
PA“The Government is committed to the independence of the OBR and the integrity of our fiscal framework, which is why the very first bill introduced the fiscal lock to ensure the OBR can never be sidelined.”
The independence of the OBR has been closely monitored by financial markets following events in 2022, when unfunded tax cuts were announced without an accompanying OBR forecast during the Liz Truss mini‑Budget.
Gilt yields rose sharply, and market instability contributed to the end of her premiership within weeks.
The Government is expected to remain aware of market sensitivity to fiscal policy credibility and oversight arrangements.
