- Friday’s draw for the Champions League’s knockout phase will begin at 11am
- Opta’s supercomputer rates Liverpool as the most likely team to lift the trophy
- LISTEN NOW: It’s All Kicking Off! Can INEOS really be judged after 12 months?
The chance of an English team winning this season’s UEFA Champions League is just over 38 per cent, according to Opta’s AI supercomputer.
Ahead of Friday’s draw for the round of 16 and beyond, the supercomputer simulated the remainder of the tournament 10,000 times before Opta published its findings.
Liverpool are said to be the most likely winners. The Reds have a 20.2 per cent chance of lifting the trophy.
Arsenal are the second favourites to go all the way with a 16.8 per cent chance of ending the season as European champions Meanwhile, the Gunners have a 79 per cent probability of reaching the quarter-finals – with the supercomputer naming them the least likely side to lose in the round of 16, where Mikel Arteta’s men will face PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord.
Aston Villa won the European Cup in 1982 but they have only a 1.2 per cent chance of repeating that feat this season.
England only has three teams left in this season’s Champions League after Manchester City exited in the playoff round by losing 6-3 to Real Madrid. Kylian Mbappe scored four goals against City as Madrid looked like the Real deal over two legs. However, Opta only rates Madrid as fifth favourites right now.
The draw for the UEFA Champions League’s round of 16 and beyond will take place on Friday
Real Madrid will feature in the draw after Kylian Mbappe helped them knock out Man City
But Real Madrid are only rated as the fifth most likely team to win the tournament by Opta
Carlo Ancelotti’s men are given a 10.5 per cent shot of adding to their tally of 15 titles this season, with Barcelona (12.7%) and Inter Milan (12.4%) rated as slightly more realistic contenders.
Paris Saint-Germain (8.8%) are apparently the sixth most likely team to conquer Europe this season, while Feyenoord (0.6%) have the slimmest chance.
Interestingly, Bayer Leverkusen (4.6%) are seen as stronger contenders than German rivals Bayern Munich (4.2%).
Once drawn, the round of 16 matches will take place over two legs between March 4 and 12.
The quarter-final first legs will then be held on April 8 and 9, with the return matches being played the following week.
This season’s semi-finals will start in the final week of April and conclude on May 6 and 7.
Munich will host the final at Bayern’s Allianz Arena on May 31.
| Team | QFs | SFs | Final | Winners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Liverpool | 70% | 58.1% | 35.9% | 20.2% |
| 2. Arsenal | 79% | 49.1% | 30.3% | 16.8% |
| 3. Barcelona | 61.5% | 47.3% | 25.3% | 12.7% |
| 4. Inter Milan | 74.9% | 42.2% | 23.5% | 12.4% |
| 5. Real Madrid | 61.6% | 35.1% | 19.5% | 10.5% |
| 6. PSG | 45.8% | 34.8% | 17.3% | 8.8% |
| 7. Leverkusen | 46.1% | 20.5% | 10.2% | 4.6% |
| 8. Bayern Munich | 49.1% | 21% | 9.8% | 4.2% |
| 9. Atletico Madrid | 43.2% | 18.4% | 8.5% | 3.8% |
| 10. Aston Villa | 54.1% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| 11. Lille | 52.2% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 12. Benfica | 22.8% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 13. PSV | 26.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 14. Dortmund | 44.9% | 11% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 15. Club Brugge | 48.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 16. Feyenoord | 20% | 6% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
