These are desperate days for Sir Keir Starmer as he clings on to power in the wake of the furore caused by the Mandelson scandal.
According to some sources, Starmer is “in a dark place” and even considering whether he stays on as prime minister such is the anger and shame he feels over appointing Peter Mandelson to being ambassador to the US.
The revelations about how Mandelson had an ongoing relationship with the financier Jeffrey Epstein after he was convicted of sex trafficking and paedophilia, now coupled with allegations he leaked Epstein market-sensitive government documents while he was business secretary, have rocked Labour and Starmer’s government.
Sir Keir Starmer has said Peter Mandelson lied repeatedly about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein (PA Wire)
And it was clear when Sir Keir was forced to U-turn on Wednesday over releasing vetting documents regarding Mandelson’s appointment that he has lost control of the parliamentary Labour Party, with many MPs saying his position is “untenable”.
Who can replace Keir Starmer?
This is the question that needs to be answered before Labour MPs can make the move to replace a leader who just 19 months ago took them back into power with a massive majority after 14 years in the wilderness.
With all the leading contenders having their own problems, the answer is not clear enough for many MPs to be willing to join a coup.
A surprise candidate to give Farage nightmares
A name now emerging is veterans minister Al Carns. He seems like the longest of shots but according to friends of Nigel Farage, this is the one option Reform UK do not want Labour to take.
Mr Carns was a Royal Marines colonel who won the Military Cross and saw action in Afghanistan.
From both inside and outside Labour, the Aberdonian by birth is being connected with a potential bid for No 10 if a vacancy comes up and has strong support from the business and third sector communities in Britain’s second city, Birmingham, where he is the MP for Selly Oak.
Armed Forces minister Al Carns (PA Wire)
When you have been shot at by the Taliban and led troops into battle with bullets flying around, the prospect of verbal shots from Mr Farage and co or nasty posts on X, or even whining by Labour backbenchers, probably do not seem that worrying.
But his CV is not his only strength. His policy positions would be problematic for the Tories and Reform UK. He would provide legal protection against prosecution for military veterans, he would ditch the Chagos Islands deal (according to sources), and he would take a much tougher stance on immigration.
An ally of Mr Farage’s told The Independent: “We are keeping a close eye on Al Carns. He would be a nightmare for Reform UK. He would basically neutralise all Nigel’s attack lines with voters. Also he would come without any of the political baggage of others.”
The lack of political baggage in a government tarnished by scandals and U-turns could be a strength.
But his weakness is lack of political experience and no obvious supporter base. He was only elected in the general election in 2024 and does not have the traditional union or Labour affiliate backing. Labour are already ruing the day they picked a leader based on a career outside politics (Starmer as director of public prosecutions), to discover shortcomings in his political skill and nous.
Nevertheless, Mr Carns could be “the clean pair of hands” compromise candidate needed to bring different factions together.
Why not the King of the North?
The problem is that while he is popular with voters and extremely able, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is unable to get back into parliament. Starmer, seeing a coup coming, blocked him as the candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham campaigning ahead of the Gorton and Denton by-election (PA Archive)
What about the queen exile?
Angela Rayner is definitely manoeuvring to replace Starmer. Her intervention on Wednesday in the Humble Address debate siding with the Tories forced Starmer into a humiliating U-turn, agreeing to release all the vetting documents on Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to the US.
She is now briefing that she, as deputy PM, advised against Mandelson’s appointment. And she has a major speech for the influential Mainstream group just days ahead of the crucial by-election on 26 February.
But Ms Rayner cannot make any move at the moment because she is still waiting for HMRC to report back on her failure to pay about £30,000 in stamp duty on a flat in Hove. Until she is cleared, or at least resolves the issue which forced her to resign, she will be under a cloud and cannot easily become PM.
Wes Streeting is also associated with Mandelson (Sky News)
How about the crown prince?
Health secretary Wes Streeting has been described as a future leader for years now. Before Christmas, Downing Street accused him of trying to organise a coup against Starmer.
But while a strong media performer, Mr Streeting is now also struggling to escape the shadow of his mentor Peter Mandelson. No amount of deleted pictures and social media posts can separate him from a figure who is dragging the Labour Party down with him.
Energy security and net zero secretary Ed Miliband (PA Wire)
Maybe the lost leader?
Energy secretary Ed Miliband was a popular figure at the Labour conference last autumn and he has found new vigour and purpose as the champion of net zero and tackling climate change.
His main problem is awkward pictures of him eating a bacon sandwich still haunt him.
In other words, he still has not shaken off the failures of his first stint as leader between 2010 and 2015, which led to a shock Tory election victory and ultimately to the Brexit referendum that took the UK out of the EU.
At least he can say he refused to have anything to do with Mandelson when he was leader, which makes him almost unique among Labour leaders of the past 30 years, the only other exceptions being Jeremy Corbyn and the late John Smith.
